The security situation in the Niger Delta has been fragile since President Yar'Adua declared a 60 day amnesty period that expired on 04 October 2009. Thereafter the road to peace has been marred by potholes and diversions that have hampered progress.
President Yar'Adua has been incapacitated and absent from Nigeria under medical care in Saudi for the latter part of the post-amnesty period. Two weeks ago, in a sign of growing frustration with the post-amnesty process, MEND resumed hostilities with an attack on an oil facility jointly operated by Royal Dutch Shell and Chevron in Rivers State. MEND said the peace process had stalled, a situation it attributed to the absence of President Yar'Adua.
Following MEND's attack Shell announced that it would pull out of its on-shore operations in the Niger Delta and sell its interests. The Federal Government was caught by surprise.
Shell's announcement is a clear signal to the Federal Government that many international investors have come to the end of the road. The Federal Government and the State Governments of the Niger Delta no longer enjoy the confidence of international investors.
The Governor of Bayelsa State who has publicly lauded the end of conflict and proclaimed a new era of economic prosperity in his state is rapidly losing the interest of international project investors who are turning to other states of Nigeria and other countries where there is a lesser risk to investment.
During President Yar'Adua's absence from Nigeria former militants have staged public protests over the non-payment of amnesty allowances. This week from his hospital bed President Yar'Adua signed the supplementary 2009 budget that has earmarked substantial funds for the reintegration of former militants into the communities and to promote infrastructure development. Even a rapid release of the funds will not ensure a continued peace.
Offering an additional 10 percent of oil revenues to the oil producing states will not bring a sustained peace to the Niger Delta. It is highly unlikely the additional Federal funds will make any positive difference to the poverty stricken population of the Niger Delta. It is simply more cream for a corrupt system.
Even if the funds are targeted to address systemic failures in the Niger Delta the danger of siphoning the funds off through a system that provides little public accountability and no transparency continues to weigh heavily on potential investor confidence.
The Federal Government must be courageous enough to deliver a decisive blow to the corruption in the system that manages the flow of revenue to the states. This will require an assertive Federal Government willing to take on Governors and senior bureaucrats who pervert the system and divert revenues.
The Federal Government has finally made the post-amnesty plan for the disarmament, re-integration and rehabilitation of ex-militants in the Niger Delta available, but only to former militant commanders for their ratification. It is surprising that such a plan was not completed before the amnesty was first offered on 02 April 2009. In response to public calls for the terms of the amnesty to be defined a package consisting of a presidential pardon, rehabilitation programme, education and training was announced in late June, but no details were made public.
The evolving plan, to which the public has been denied access, is expected to be implemented early in January 2010. A successful and sustained peace requires the involvement of the whole community and the Federal Government should consider making its post-amnesty plan for the disarmament, re-integration and rehabilitation of ex-militants publicly available.
The post-amnesty plan can deliver a sustained peace only if there are significant changes to the underlying political and economic landscape in the Niger Delta. As yet there are no signs of any such changes.
Thus far, as in 2004, it is the personal involvement of the President that provides the credibility to the peace process. In 2004 when the implementation phase was handed to the State Governors the process broke down and the funds promised to underpin the development plan simply vanished.
In the current situation, the prolonged absence of the President has seen the post amnesty process stall and currently stands perilously close to failure.
Thus the question remains whether the peace process has been sufficiently defined and embedded so as to overcome the necessity for the hands-on involvement of President Yar'Adua that has given the current peace process its only credibility.
Without the hand of Mr President firmly on the tiller to guide the post-amnesty process the likelihood of a sustained peace seems very low.