ON WATCH: The status of the peace process

There has been an endless stream of rumours about President Yar'Adua's health since he was nominated. These rumours are given a new twist and grow to almost avalanche proportions each time Mr. Yar'Adua seeks medical attention in a foreign country. On this most recent occasion it was not his kidney condition that was the troubling issue. It was his heart and this has added fuel to questions about his health.

Various spokespersons for the Presidency have either denied there is any problem of substance or swept aside the matter while castigating any journalist who raises the subject.

Whilst the public position may be that there is no problem, privately the hyenas are circling. They are waiting their opportunity and assessing their chances of success. But they will not emerge from the cover of the bushes until they have gathered sufficient numbers to boost their confidence and increase their chances of overwhelming any opposition in their bid to control the Presidency. So it is that candidates for a possible post in a successive government are jostling and marshalling support.

This is a dangerous time and such situations can foster national instability. There are many considerations as to who should succeed President Yar'Adua if for any reason he does not complete his term of office.

There is the inevitable question as to whether the Vice President, as a southerner, would be acceptable when the north is clearly expecting to hold the presidency for two terms.

Mr, Yar'Adua has been the driving force behind the current amnesty in the Niger Delta. When the initial amnesty proposal was announced MEND called on him to widen the terms of the amnesty. President Yar'Adua responded by including the release of Henry Okah, Federal Government support for further development projects, and the demobilisation through retraining and employment for former combatants. At the insistence of MEND most recently Yar'Adu has met with the Aaron Team with the view to discussing true federalism. This is a very significant step as it recognises that the solution to the ongoing unrest in the Niger Delta requires more than an amnesty, weapons surrender and some retraining.

Without President Yar'Adua as the driving force in government for peace in the Niger Delta and without his authority to garner the Federal Government and states to co-operate with a constructive peace and development strategy, can the current amnesty process survive?

Are relations between the militia leadership and the military leaders sufficiently well established that the amnesty process would stay on track even if Yar'Adua were no longer at the helm to personally direct and control the implementation of the government's role in the peace process?

The former leaders of non-state forces such as Tompolo, Ateke Tom, Saboma, Fara, Boyloaf, Africa, etc have taken up the amnesty offer, surrendered their weapons and encouraged their followers into the retraining camps. Thus they are a diminished threat if we are to believe the government reports that these groups have surrendered all their weapons.

MEND has not accepted the government's amnesty terms and continues to seek a more comprehensive peace deal.

This week MEND released a press statement distancing itself from an earlier statement from the Joint Revolutionary Council (JRC). The JRC had threatened possible secession if Vice President Goodluck Jonathan is forced to resign from office rather than assume the post of president in the event that Mr. Yar'Adua becomes unable to continue in office.

The JRC's statement is an indication of the importance of the Niger Delta situation towards any bid for influence over the Presidency and thus the attempts to solicit support from the militia leadership.

MEND's response is an effort to make it clear that MEND will not be drawn into the politicking around the future of the Presidency.

Jomo Gbomo, the spokesman for MEND, says "MEND's main concern is to sustain the current peace and ensure the continuance of the peace discussions". He said, "MEND will not be drawn into supporting any efforts to undermine President Yar'Adua or the Presidency." Yar'Adua's efforts in promoting the peace process have been a crucial buffer to the hawks who have pushed for stronger military action and, at times, recommended a major military offensive in the Niger Delta. His continued well being is crucial to a sustained peace, as is MEND's commendable neutral position on the speculation surrounding his health and its restraint in offering public support for any contender to the presidency.