Anecdotal evidence has it that when Goodluck Jonathan was told that he had been chosen as running mate to Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, he was gob-smacked and could not believe his good fortune. His surprise was understandable. The number two job was coveted by more flamboyant personalities, some of whom were fully convinced that the job would be theirs. Big names like Peter Odili, James Ibori, Donald Duke and Victor Attah were all serious contenders.
In the end though, Mr. Jonathan accepted that which was thrust upon him and set out to remain true to the qualities which, according to rumour, made him a good choice. He is apparently very loyal to the point of docility, does not aspire to his boss’ job and has a bland mien that does not rock the boat. Well, it seems destiny is not quite done with Jonathan, as he could yet occupy the number one job as President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.
By all accounts, the man who now occupies that seat is very ill. The extent of his illness, which has been under speculation for so long, was finally revealed when Aso Rock decided that rumours of his death had to be quashed by revealing what exactly it is that ails the president. This singular act means Nigerians can now join all the dotted lines and there can be one conclusion: the president is gravely ill. He may or may not live, but there is enough in what has been said to suggest he may be incapacitated and therefore unfit to rule.
If that were to happen, the constitution has clearly stipulated the line of succession. Destiny’s child, Goodluck Jonathan, is supposed to be sworn in immediately.
But the manoeuvring has already started. Many are not comfortable with a Jonathan presidency - but, contrary to what has been written in the press, the dissenters are not all northerners.
Within his own immediate constituency, the vice president has been engaged in a battle in Bayelsa State with the governor, Timipre Sylva. The antecedents of the problem go back a few years. When Mr. Jonathan ran for second term as governor, Sylva was the only PDP candidate who contested against him. The relationship since then has been frosty.
When Mr. Jonathan got the number two job and departed from Yenegoa, the state capital, he wasn’t happy that Mr. Sylva got his former job - and when the governorship elections were subsequently annulled and a re-run called, the vice president was prepared to endorse a new candidate.
But, according to PDP insiders, Mr. Sylva was prepared to do anything to keep his job. So he begged and promised to be of ‘good’ behaviour. Once in the saddle however, he set out to build his own political base and in the process stepped on the toes of Mr. Jonathan and his ally, special adviser to the President on Niger Delta, Timi Alaibe. Both men see themselves as the undisputed power brokers in Bayelsa State; and are determined to control the PDP machinery as well as all other things that are necessary for political supremacy.
The squabble almost threatened the amnesty deal when Mr. Alaibe decided to spearhead the disarmament of some militants outside the exercise being conducted by the state government.
Insiders say Mr. Alaibe realised that militants that were disarmed by the state government owed their allegiance to the governor and, if necessary, could be utilised as foot soldiers. To ensure that both he and the VP didn’t lose political influence, Alaibe arranged and carried out his own disarmament exercise. The state government was quick to denounce his actions and accused him of trying to destabilise the whole process for personal gain.
Predictably, the PDP in Bayelsa State is divided into two factions, one loyal to Mr. Jonathan and Mr. Alaibe, and the other loyal to the state governor, Mr. Sylva, a man who is unlikely to be thrilled at the prospect of a Jonathan presidency.
And then there are those who cannot predict what the VP would be like as president. This set of people has a lot at stake in ensuring whoever is in the top job would protect their interests. They are uncomfortable because the very qualities that make Jonathan perfect as a deputy also mean that, right now, it is difficult to say what his political inclinations are.
Would he spearhead a government that is sympathetic to political reform? Go after corrupt public officials? Or would he run a government that would be so pro Niger Delta to such extent as to ignore the interests of the wider Nigerian populace? He is an unknown quantity as far as vested interests are concerned; they cannot predict which way the dice will fall – for or against them – and so they do not particularly relish the prospect of him getting the number one job.
However, all that opposition fades in significance when compared to how a section of the northern political class, mostly in the ruling PDP, feel about a Jonathan presidency. For these people, the reason is simple. A northern candidate is supposed to rule Nigeria for the next six years, according to a gentleman’s agreement supposedly reached at the higher echelons of the party. For this set, anything that threatens this arrangement must be fought.
One of the arguments they advance to justify their call for Mr. Jonathan to resign is incompetency, but frankly that is neither here nor there right now. What matters is the legality of what they are trying to do. In fighting this particular battle therefore, these northerners would be fighting against the constitution. In other words, for their own self interest, they would promote an irregularity and sabotage Nigeria. As if that is not bad enough, there is the presumption that this lot is fighting for a homogeneous northern interest, but this as we all know is a myth.
The north is made up of diverse groups that have long suffered from having rogues as leaders. Certainly, the average northerner has more in common with the average southerner than they have with politicians and people in government within their constituency.
The areas of commonality include a desperate attempt to eke out a living in a society where government has lost all sense of responsibility to its people and grinding poverty is the lot for the majority.
The situation in the north is measurably worse than in other parts of the country. It has the ignominy of being the poorest region in Nigeria, which is the legacy of the northern leaders who now want to sabotage the constitution supposedly to protect the ‘interest’ of the north.
But Nigeria is changing - albeit slowly. Increasingly, many ordinary people realise that a better future lies in building democratic institutions, and a society that we can all proudly bequeath to our children. For this to happen, our laws must be supreme and should not to be sabotaged willy-nilly because they don’t serve a particular interest.
The sum of the total should be greater than that of the parts.
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