MONEY MATTERS: The population emergency

According to the World Bank Group, sub-Saharan Africa had 7% of the population of the World and 2% of the wealth in 1960.

Today, this region has 12% of the population of the World but still controls only 2% of the wealth. This means that when we measure wealth per head, the gap between this region and the rest of the world is widening. One of the most important reasons for the widening gap is the rapid growth in population.

The population of sub-Saharan Africa has grown from 220 million in 1960 to 800 million in 2008.

The current growth rate of 2.3% p.a. is more than twice the world average and about two-thirds of this population is under 25 years old. This rapid increase in population has resulted in a significant growth in the demand for schools, hospitals, jobs and infrastructure. How has sub-Saharan Africa responded to this demand?

The model we inherited from the countries that colonised Africa stipulated that the government should provide these services.

When the demand for these services and the cost of running our governments were low, this model worked. Now, most of the governments in sub-Saharan Africa have bloated cost structures and more people want access to these services. Payroll of government workers and the cost of purchasing goods and services for the day to day running of government eat up a significant part of the revenue of most governments. This means that there are very little funds left to build new schools, hospitals and infrastructure that will cater for the needs of a growing population. No wonder the quality of our schools is poor, our hospitals are run down and our infrastructure dilapidated.

Instead of encouraging private sector businesses to invest in these areas, the various governments have tried to raise money for these by running budget deficits, which are financed by borrowing. Higher debt means higher interest payments, which further eat up government revenues, putting most of these governments in a debt trap.

Most countries in sub- Saharan Africa still believe that it is taboo to talk openly about population control. If unchecked, the population of sub-Saharan Africa is projected to grow to about 20% of world population by 2050. How well positioned is this region to grow its share of the wealth of the world? In my view, the region is not very well positioned. Therefore, it is urgent and important to take more active steps to manage the population.

In order to address this problem, we need to know why the woman in sub-Saharan Africa bears on average five children, more than twice the average in the Western world. She probably wants as many children as possible in order to improve her chances of having children that will outlive her. She also wants to have at least one child that will be sufficiently wealthy to take care of her in her old age and at least one male issue for inheritance purposes.

In solving this problem, we should focus on the female population because a woman naturally cares about the welfare of her children. Firstly, we need to educate them about birth control and give them birth control tools. Secondly, we must improve the chances of survival of their children by providing adequate healthcare. Thirdly, we must improve the chances of these children in life by them educating them and arming them with skills that they can use to earn a decent livelihood. Lastly, we must provide an economic reward for women who comply with the limits set.

What limits should we set? Limiting each woman to three children will go a long way in solving this population problem but it will also cost money. The various governments need to invest in good antenatal care for women, provide them with birth control tools and children must be immunised and provided good healthcare. The quality of education must be improved and the private sector must be encouraged to invest in all these sectors (particularly infrastructure) in order to create jobs for people we graduate from our schools. Finally, we should give cash to women who do not exceed the limit stipulated and this should be for each child until he/she is 18 years old. Women who exceed the limit should not be paid anything!

The benefits of a concerted effort to manage the population of sub-Saharan Africa include lower infant mortality rates, higher school enrolments, lower unemployment, lower crime rates and better economic prosperity. Some people argue that sub-Saharan Africa needs to grow at an average of 7% p.a. in order to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) goal of halving poverty by 2015. Most of us know that, with wars and poor governance, this average growth rate is unattainable. We probably have a better chance of halving poverty in this region during the next 20 years by spending all MDG money on population management and issues relating to it.